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Moneyball (film)

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It's about getting things down to one number. Using the stats the way we read them... we'll find value in players that nobody else can see.

Moneyball is a 2011 film about the Major League Baseball team Oakland Athletics during their 2002 season. General manager Billy Beane put together an overperforming team with a small budget using computer-generated analysis to draft his players.

Directed by Bennett Miller. Written by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, based on Michael Lewis's 2003 book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game.
What are you really worth?

Billy Beane

[edit]
The problem we're trying to solve is that there are rich teams and there are poor teams. Then there's fifty feet of crap, and then there's us.
  • [Addressing his baseball scouts] The problem we're trying to solve is that there are rich teams and there are poor teams. Then there's fifty feet of crap, and then there's us. It's an unfair game. And now we've been gutted. We're like organ donors for the rich. Boston's taken our kidneys, Yankees have taken our heart. And you guys just sit around talking the same old "good body" nonsense like we're selling jeans. Like we're looking for Fabio. We've got to think differently. We are the last dog at the bowl. You see what happens to the runt of the litter? He dies.

Peter Brand

[edit]
You're trying to replace Johnny Damon. The Boston Red Sox see Johnny Damon and they see a star who's worth seven and half million dollars a year. When I see Johnny Damon, what I see is... is... an imperfect understanding of where runs come from.
  • There is an epidemic failure within the game to understand what is really happening. And this leads people who run Major League Baseball teams to misjudge their players and mismanage their teams. I apologize. (Billy Beane: Go on.) Okay. People who run ball clubs, they think in terms of buying players. Your goal shouldn't be to buy players, your goal should be to buy wins. And in order to buy wins, you need to buy runs. You're trying to replace Johnny Damon. The Boston Red Sox see Johnny Damon and they see a star who's worth seven and half million dollars a year. When I see Johnny Damon, what I see is... is... an imperfect understanding of where runs come from. The guy's got a great glove. He's a decent leadoff hitter. He can steal bases. But is he worth the seven and half million dollars a year that the Boston Red Sox are paying him? No. No. Baseball thinking is medieval. They are asking all the wrong questions. And if I say it to anybody, I'm-I'm ostracized. I'm-I'm-I'm a leper. So that's why I'm-I'm cagey about this with you. That's why I... I respect you, Mr. Beane, and if you want full disclosure, I think it's a good thing that you got Damon off your payroll. I think it opens up all kinds of interesting possibilities.

Dialogue

[edit]
[Beane calls Brand in the middle of the night]
Peter Brand: What...what time is it?
Billy Beane: I don't know. Pete, would you have taken me in the first round?
Peter Brand: What?
Billy Beane: After we talked, you looked me up. Would you have taken me in the first round?
Peter Brand: Yeah, I looked you up. You...you were pretty good.
Billy Beane: Cut the crap, Pete. Would you have taken me in the first round?
Peter Brand: ...I would've taken you in the ninth round. No signing bonus. I think that would've convinced you to take that scholarship.
Billy Beane: [brief pause] Pack your bags, Pete. I just bought you from the Cleveland Indians.
Peter Brand: [Pointing to numbers on a white board] Using this equation in the upper left... I'm projecting that we need to win at least 99 games... in order to make it to the postseason. We need to score at least 814 runs in order to win those games... and allow no more than 645 runs. [Pulls out code from a computer]
Billy Beane: What's this?
Peter Brand: This is a code that I've written for our year-to-year projections. This is building in the intelligence that we have to project players.
Billy Beane: Okay.
Billy, this is Chad Bradford. He's a relief pitcher. He is one of the most undervalued players in baseball. His defect is that he throws funny. Nobody in the big leagues cares about him because he looks funny.
Peter Brand: It's about getting things down to one number. Using the stats the way we read them... we'll find value in players that nobody else can see. People are overlooked... for a variety of biased reasons and perceived flaws. Age, appearance, personality. Bill James and mathematics cut straight through that. Billy, of the 20,000 notable players for us to consider, I believe that there is a championship team... of 25 people that we can afford, because everyone else in baseball undervalues them. Like.... an island of misfit toys. [Pulls up a player's statistics] Billy, this is Chad Bradford. He's a relief pitcher. He is one of the most undervalued players in baseball. His defect is that he throws funny. Nobody in the big leagues cares about him because he looks funny. This guy could be not just the best pitcher in our pen... but one of the most effective relief pitchers in all baseball. This guy should cost $3 million a year. We can get him for 237,000.
Guys, you're still trying to replace Giambi. I told you we can't do it, and we can't do it. Now, what we might be able to do is re-create him. Re-create him in the aggregate.
Billy Beane: Guys, you're still trying to replace Giambi. I told you we can't do it, and we can't do it. Now, what we might be able to do is re-create him. Re-create him in the aggregate.
Grady Fuson: The what?
Billy Beane: Giambi's on-base percentage was .477. Damon's on-base, .324. And Olmedo's was .291. Add that up, and you get... [snapping his fingers and pointing at Pete]
Peter Brand: Do you want me to speak?
Billy Beane: When I point at you, yeah.
Peter Brand: 1.092.
Billy Beane: [snapping] Divided by three.
Peter Brand: .364.
Billy Beane: That's what we're looking for. Three ballplayers... three ballplayers whose average OBP is... [snapping]
Peter Brand: .364.
Baseball narrator #1: We got Grady Fuson, former head of scouting with the Athletics.
Baseball narrator #2: And, Grady, can you interpret for us what's going on?
Grady Fuson: They call it Moneyball. Moneyball?
Billy Beane has built this team on the ideas of a guy, Bill James... who wrote an interesting book on baseball statistics. The problem is that Bill James never played, never managed. He was in fact a security guard at a pork-and-beans company.
Grady Fuson: Yes, and it was a nice theory, and now it's just not working out. Billy Beane has built this team on the ideas of a guy, Bill James... who wrote an interesting book on baseball statistics. The problem is that Bill James never played, never managed. He was in fact a security guard at a pork-and-beans company. Do you see this as a decimation of the organization? He bought a ticket on the Titanic. Oh, boy. He's tried to come up with a new approach. My hat's off to him. It won't work.
Grady Fuson: Major League Baseball and its fans...they're gonna be more than happy to throw you and Google boy under the bus if you keep doing what you're doing. You don't put a team together with a computer.
Billy Beane: No?
Grady Fuson: No. Baseball isn't just numbers. It's not science. If it was, anybody could do what we do, but they can't cause they don't know what we know. They don't have our experience and they don't have our intuition.
Billy Beane: [dismissively] Ok.
Grady Fuson: Billy, you got a kid in there that's got a degree in Economics from Yale. You got a scout here with 29 years of baseball experience. You're listening to the wrong one. Now there are intangibles that only baseball people understand. You're discarding what scouts have done for 150 years, even yourself?
Billy Beane: Adapt or die.
Hattie gets on base more than Peña. In fact, 20 percent more.
Billy Beane: Hatteberg at first... and anyone but Mags first out of the pen.
Art Howe: You want Peña on the bench?
Billy Beane: That's right. So you can play Hattie.
Art Howe: Peña is not only the best first baseman... he's the only first baseman.
Billy Beane: Hattie gets on base more than Peña. In fact, 20 percent more.
Art Howe: And his fielding?
Billy Beane: His fielding does not matter.
Art Howe: I've heard enough of this.
Billy Beane: Have you?
Art Howe: And I... I disagree with you, plain and simple. And moreover, I'm playing my team... in a way that I can explain in job interviews next winter.
Billy Beane: Look, I need a little help on defense. - Okay.
Billy Beane: I'm willing to trade Jeremy Giambi for it.

Really?

Peter Brand: What?

Who you got? What? Well, let me think.

Peter Brand: What are you doing?
Billy Beane: Cleaning house.

- Mabry?

Billy Beane: Maybe what?

No, Mabry. Hold on.

Peter Brand: No.
Billy Beane: Why not?
Peter Brand: Because you can't trade Jeremy Giambi.
Billy Beane: He'll be fine, Ed.

Why do I get the feeling you're picking my pocket?

Billy Beane: I'm not. You're picking mine. Giambi's name alone is worth more.

What's wrong with him?

Billy Beane: Nothing. Can we say it's done in theory and start drawing up the paperwork?

Okay, but you're gonna have--

Billy Beane: Great.
Peter Brand: He was gonna say something else.
Billy Beane: When you get the answer you're looking for, hang up. Suzanne.

Yes?

Billy Beane: David Dombrowski.

Okay.

Billy Beane: And Peña's going too.
Peter Brand: I don't think you should do that. I really don't think you should do that.
Billy Beane: I want Hatteberg in the lineup tonight.
Peter Brand: You need to take a minute. I think you seriously need to think about what you're doing. Because you're upset.
Billy Beane: Okay. What am I missing?
Peter Brand: These are hard moves to explain to people.
Billy Beane: Why is that a problem, Pete?
Peter Brand: Don't make an emotional decision, Billy.

David Dombrowski's on 3.

Billy Beane: Look, we're gonna shake things up. Dave. Peña's going on the block. You're my first call. Because he's making the rest of the team look bad. He's gonna be a Rookie of the Year.
Peter Brand: Probably an All-Star.
Billy Beane: He's an All-Star, Dave. No. I want a reliever and cash. Okay. You got five minutes, Dave. I'm not waiting.
Billy, Peña is an All-Star, okay? And if you dump him and this Hatteberg thing doesn't work out... you know this is... This is the kind of decision that gets you fired. It is.
Peter Brand: Billy, Peña is an All-Star, okay? And if you dump him and this Hatteberg thing doesn't work out... you know this is... This is the kind of decision that gets you fired. It is.
Billy Beane: Yes, you're right. I may lose my job. In which case I'm a 44-year-old guy with a high school diploma... and a daughter I'd like to be able to send to college. You're 25 years old, with a degree from Yale... and a pretty impressive apprenticeship. I don't think we're asking the right question. I think the question we should be asking is... do you believe in this thing or not?
Peter Brand: I do.
Billy Beane: It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves. Don't. To anyone.
Peter Brand: Okay.
Billy Beane: Now, I'm gonna see this thing through, for better or worse. Just tell me, do you project we'll win more with Hatteberg or Peña at first?
Peter Brand: It's close... but theoretically, Hatteberg.
[The Athletics have just won against the Kansas City Royals, making a 20 win streak]
Billy Beane: It's hard not to be romantic about baseball. This kind of thing, it's fun for the fans. It sells tickets and hot dogs. Doesn't mean anything.
Peter Brand: Billy, we just won twenty games in a row.
Billy Beane: And what's the point?
Peter Brand: We just got the record.
Billy Beane: Man, I've been doing this for... listen, man. I've been in this game a long time. I'm not in it for a record, I'll tell you that. I'm not in it for a ring. That's when people get hurt. If we don't win the last game of the Series, they'll dismiss us.
Peter Brand: Billy...
I know these guys. I know the way they think, and they will erase us. And everything we've done here, none of it'll matter.
Billy Beane: I know these guys. I know the way they think, and they will erase us. And everything we've done here, none of it'll matter. Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team... we'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something.
[Cuts to Oakland Coliseum where the Athletics are playing against the Minesotta Twins]
Sports announcer: The A's going to the play-offs with the West Division title. Forgive the A's if they're not celebrating. They have been here before... when Oakland went up two games to none on the Yanks in the ALDS... and went nowhere after losing three straight. With a win today over the Twins, Oakland moves into the ALCS... for the first time since 1992.
Due respect to the Coliseum, but this is a ballpark.
John Henry: [Leading Beane through a tour of Fenway Park] Due respect to the Coliseum, but this is a ballpark.
Billy Beane: Yes, it is.
John Henry: So why did you return my call?
Billy Beane: Because it's the Red Sox. Because I believe science might offer an answer to the Curse of the Bambino. [Henry laughs] Because I hear you hired Bill James.
John Henry: Yup. You know, why someone took so long to hire that guy is beyond me.
Billy Beane: Well, baseball hates him.
John Henry: Well, baseball can hate him, you know. One of the great things about money is that it buys a lot of things, one of which is the luxury to disregard what baseball likes, doesn't likes, what baseball thinks, doesn't think.
Billy Beane: [Laughing] Sounds nice. Well, I was grateful for the call.
John Henry: You were grateful?
Billy Beane: Yeah.
John Henry: For $41 million, you built a playoff team. You lost Damon, Giambi, Isringhausen, Peña, and you won more games without them than you did with them. You won the exact same number of games that the Yankees won, but the Yankees spent $1.4 million per win, and you paid $260,000. I know you are taking it in the teeth, but the first guy through the wall... he always gets bloody, always. This is threatening not just a way of doing business... but in their minds, it's threatening the game. Really what it's threatening is their livelihood, their jobs. It's threatening the way they do things... and every time that happens, whether it's the government, a way of doing business, whatever, the people who are holding the reins - they have their hands on the switch - they go batshit crazy. I mean, anybody who's not tearing their team down right now and rebuilding it using your model, they're dinosaurs. They'll be sitting their ass on the sofa in October watching the Boston Red Sox win the World Series. [Slips Beane a piece of paper]
Billy Beane: What's this?
John Henry: I want you to be my general manager. That's my offer.
[Billy has returned from Boston, and his offer is revealed as the largest in general manager history]
Billy Beane: I made one decision in my life based on money. And I swore I would never do it again.
Peter Brand: You're not doing it for the money.
Billy Beane: No?
You're doing it for what the money says. And it says what it says to any player that makes big money. That they're worth it.
Peter Brand: No. You're doing it for what the money says. And it says what it says to any player that makes big money. That they're worth it.
[Casey sings "The Show" by Lenka as Billy drives. He begins to cry.]
[end text]
Billy Beane turned down the Boston Red Sox offer of 12,500,000 and chose to stay in Oakland as the A's General Manager. Two years later, the Red Sox won their first World Series since 1918 embracing the philosophy championed in Oakland. Billy is still trying to win the last game of the season.

Cast

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