Prediction

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...if you make a great number of predictions, the ones that were wrong will soon be forgotten, and the ones that turn out to be true will make you famous. ~ Malcolm Gladwell
For a list of failed predictions, see incorrect predictions.

A prediction (or forecast) is a statement about the way things will happen in the future.

CONTENT : A - F , G - L , M - R , S - Z , Disputed, See also , External links

Quotes[edit]

Quotes are arranged alphabetically by author

A - F[edit]

  • [Engineering concerns] the creative application of scientific principles to design or develop structures, machines, apparatus, or manufacturing processes, or works utilizing them singly or in combination; or to construct or operate the same with full cognizance of their design; or to forecast their behavior under specific operating conditions; all as respects an intended function, economics of operation and safety to life and property."
  • As with anything else, there are good and bad ways to forecast.
    • Francis X. Diebold Elements of Forecasting (4th ed., 2007), Introduction to Forecasting: Applications, Methods, Books, Journals, and Software

G - L[edit]

  • ...if you make a great number of predictions, the ones that were wrong will soon be forgotten, and the ones that turn out to be true will make you famous.
    Malcolm Gladwell (2007-11-12). Dangerous Minds: Criminal profiling made easy.. The New Yorker. Retrieved on 2008-01-01.
  • I have always believed that people have misjudged the accuracy of economic forecasting... During the 1980s and 1990s, I researched and applied methods of high frequency economic forecasting, to be used by themselves, and for objective establishment of initial conditions for longer range forecasts from structural dynamic models that carry forward the pioneering contributions of Jan Tinbergen.

M - R[edit]

S - Z[edit]

  • The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.
  • Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.
  • The intellectually aggressive hedgehogs knew one big thing and sought, under the banner of parsimony, to expand the explanatory power of that big thing to “cover” new cases; the more eclectic foxes knew many little things and were content to improvise ad hoc solutions to keep pace with a rapidly changing world.
  • It is my hope that in such a way we may again, as Marx claimed, find scientific arguments in the competition between various systems, but up-to-date scientific arguments rather than obsolete ones. This more fundamental research in economics deserves relatively more attention and resources than the more superficial versions of economic research directed at forecasting or analysing very short-term fluctuations in market prices, on which quite some money is being spent to-day.
    • Jan Tinbergen, "The Use of Models: Experience," 1969. Nobel-prize lecture.
  • The successes of modern control theory in the design of highly accurate space navigation systems have stimulated its use in the theoretical analyses of economic and biological systems. Similarly, the effectiveness of computer simulation techniques in the macroscopic analyses of physical systems has brought into vogue the use of computer-based econometric models for purposes of forecasting, economic planning, and management.
    • Lotfi A. Zadeh Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes (1973) p. 28

Disputed[edit]

  • Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
    • Attributed to Niels Bohr in Teaching and Learning Elementary Social Studies (1970) by Arthur K. Ellis, p. 431
    • The above quote is also attributed to various humourists and the Danish poet Piet Hein: "det er svært at spå - især om fremtiden"
    • It is also attributed to Danish cartoonist Storm P (Robert Storm Petersen).
    • The Danish source, used by Bohr and Petersen, has been traced back to Markus M. Ronner in 1918 by lundskovdk-citater.

See also[edit]

External links[edit]

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